Investor Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame thinks it’s dangerous to chase upside right now. “I have one concern, and that’s tariffs. That’s it,” the former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager told CNBC’s ” Fast Money ” on Monday. “The market has gotten pretty complacent about it.” Now podcast host of “The Real Eisman Playbook,” Eisman contends Wall Street is underestimating the complexity of ongoing U.S. trade negotiations with China and Europe. “I just don’t know how to handicap this because there’s just too many balls in the air,” said Eisman, who warns a full-blown trade war isn’t off the table . It appears Wall Street shrugged off tariff risks on Monday. Stocks started the month higher — with the Dow Industrials coming back from a 416-point deficit earlier in the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rebounded from earlier losses and gained 0.7%. Eisman, who’s known for successfully shorting the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, is still invested in the market despite his concern. “I am long only. I’ve taken some risk down, and I’m just sitting pat,” he added. Meanwhile, Eisman is downplaying risks tied to balancing the massive U.S. budget deficit . From ‘ridiculous’ to ‘absurd’ “If there was an alternative to Treasurys, I might be worried more about the deficit because I’d say if we don’t balance our budget, then people will sell our Treasurys and buy something else,” Eisman said. “But what else are they going to buy? They’re not going to buy bitcoin . It’s not big enough. They’re not going to buy Chinese bonds. That’s ridiculous. They’re not going to buy European or Italian bonds. That’s absurd.” He’s also not worried about firming U.S. Treasury yields. “The 10-year [Treasury note yield] has gone up, but it’s still 4.5%,” said Eisman. “It’s not like there’s some crazy sell-off.” The benchmark yield was at roughly 4.4% as of Monday night. What about the prospect of the 10-year yield topping 5%? “Relative to where it’s been because rates were zero, it’s high,” Eisman said. “But relative to history, it’s not that high.” Sign up for the Spotlight newsletter, a hand-curated collection of video clips selected by CNBC’s top editors and producers. Your daily recap of top business highlights and leading stories. Disclaimer
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Tariffs are my only concern, ‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman says
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